Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa5786f62d41e07663cc34f35f65d9c9bed89847195310b367e0569be1e182a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 1,066$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.78 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…45fbbacked Yes | 11c | 822.76$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 647.48$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 507.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 24c | 461.18$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.11 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 374.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 334.5$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 324$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 11c | 276.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 263.98$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 23c | 247.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 238.86$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 198.57$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 27c | 187.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 165$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 153.8$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 26c | 140.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 23c | 129.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 77c | 122.46$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 14c | 117.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 26c | 116.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 114.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 108.02$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 16c | 96.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 13c | 91.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 88.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 28c | 86.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 19c | 80.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 78.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 79c | 71.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 75c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 68.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 50.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…7171backed No | 79c | 40.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 38.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 36.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 32.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 30.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 26.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 24.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 19.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 16.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…04fbbacked No | 75c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 80c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 12.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.