Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacbf37c5821c230200f19d36d06fb9dae68427e5c9e4f2430063441830c2dc68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 48c | 1,641$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.18 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…45fbbacked Yes | 78c | 432.36$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 404.5$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 394.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 17c | 370.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 52c | 366$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.49 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f38…5f7cbacked Yes | 43c | 349.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 8c | 313.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 17c | 312.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 39c | 306.51$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.51 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 4c | 298.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 79c | 290.52$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 47c | 267.25$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 46c | 253.37$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.77 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 10c | 247.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 55c | 244.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.45 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 51c | 228.65$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.04 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 15c | 222.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 53c | 220$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 53c | 197.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.68 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 192.71$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 186.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 49c | 183.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.51 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 182.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 7c | 176.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 53c | 175.77$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 172$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 166.43$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 158.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 157.92$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f8…2f98backed No | 45c | 155.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 148.16$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…0f48backed No | 44c | 139.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 138.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 44c | 130.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 130.38$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 123.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 78c | 116.44$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 46c | 113.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 11c | 109.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 108.46$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 48c | 108.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 26c | 106.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 46c | 100.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 54c | 95.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 52c | 95.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 53c | 93.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 49c | 91.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…41afbacked Yes | 55c | 90.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 27c | 87.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 32c | 84.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes | 56c | 82.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 25c | 80.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 50c | 79.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 45c | 75.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 71.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 55c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 45c | 68.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 65.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 56c | 58.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 39c | 57.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked No | 40c | 56.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 51c | 56.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 26c | 55.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 45c | 54.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 46c | 52.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 44c | 51.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 41c | 51.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 45c | 51.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d3…c14bbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 36c | 49.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 49.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 52c | 42.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4746backed No | 56c | 40.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 53c | 39.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 47c | 38.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 52c | 38.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…b15dbacked Yes | 54c | 36.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 47c | 35.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.