NFL · resolved market
Will Sonny Styles be drafted 4th overall in the 2026 pro football draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe754315b1236d9c4d9027302d52e53dcab27d6afb3cbadc925a9e3bf6777858b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Yes | 38c | 3,389$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.07 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 63c | 1,381$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.86 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 60c | 1,183$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.49 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 69c | 535.11$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.32 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 63c | 296.63$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88f4…874abacked Yes | 41c | 235.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bba…b707backed Yes | 31c | 155.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 69c | 123.18$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…3736backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e7…8c77backed Yes | 37c | 65.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked Yes | 33c | 63.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 220 | 53.2%117 W · 103 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 72c | 60.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 36c | 46.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed No | 62c | 23.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sonny Styles be drafted 4th overall in the 2026 pro football draft?this page
- Will Arvell Reese be drafted 4th overall in the 2026 pro football draft?No won
- Will C.J. Allen be drafted 4th overall in the 2026 pro football draft?No won
- Will David Bailey be drafted 4th overall in the 2026 pro football draft?No won
- Will Jeremiyah Love be drafted 4th overall in the 2026 pro football draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.