Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on January 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe76fd710c3fc3445aa4a262732c6d3e1f7634677928278425a66fa18dd5be827
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 69c | 710.4$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.32 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…3b83backed No | 26c | 648.02$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.18 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +5.4wins | +0.38per pick | 54cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…241dbacked No | 73c | 408$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 19c | 275.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 10c | 181.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…5fe1backed No | 75c | 178.29$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1e…2f5abacked Yes | 27c | 136$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…7c81backed Yes | 27c | 136$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…f692backed No | 73c | 136$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…e6babacked Yes | 27c | 136$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…e6d1backed Yes | 27c | 136$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcf…47ddbacked Yes | 47c | 127.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb387…775cbacked Yes | 12c | 112.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 37c | 103.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 56c | 55.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…68d1backed No | 57c | 42.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb8…8b21backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49fc…7802backed Yes | 65c | 36.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 56c | 34.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 44c | 33.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…1829backed Yes | 37c | 31.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…c149backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…da58backed No | 56c | 19.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…4edbbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on January 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or below on January 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on January 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on January 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on January 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on January 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.