Commodities · resolved market
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7993ff7dc751efee88f5e6fc8d1d88d74db30d493499d9cb259187883c29abf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 65c | 1,868$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.2 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 34c | 800$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f0…dc45backed Up | 35c | 657.52$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Up | 22c | 607.46$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.87 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Up | 53c | 560.21$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Up | 22c | 515.04$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.57 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…f20abacked Down | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 22c | 487$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.57 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Down | 63c | 393.77$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Up | 33c | 300$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa483…0b33backed Up | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Up | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Up | 29c | 136.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Up | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…6713backed Up | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Up | 15c | 97.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…0325backed Up | 16c | 91.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f93…242bbacked Down | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…e94dbacked Up | 60c | 67.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…d606backed Up | 33c | 56.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Up | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…fd1dbacked Down | 74c | 50.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…3f9cbacked Up | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba2a…d857backed Up | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Up | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Down | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Up | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Up | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x194a…5661backed Up | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad0…f201backed Up | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bb…f168backed Up | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8a…3430backed Down | 80c | 12.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.