Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe79d19017fbdc6139c2c06e05ea8bfd2d8796f7d1341a3ead65f71b8f06c939f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 489.97$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 63c | 475.34$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.36 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 334.24$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 150.52$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…6004backed Yes | 59c | 147.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 109.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 27c | 104.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…bdbabacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 38c | 92.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 43c | 91.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 47c | 82.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed Yes | 69c | 72.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 68.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 68.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 42c | 67.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 59c | 66.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 65.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 77c | 62.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 55.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked No | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked Yes | 38c | 49.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 64c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 59c | 45.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 35c | 42.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 39.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 38.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 41c | 37.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 37.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 54c | 36.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 36.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 49c | 34.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef1…5c6dbacked Yes | 63c | 30.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 63c | 29.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 37c | 28.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 28.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 26.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 21.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 64c | 19.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 54c | 18.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 69c | 18.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.