Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x677f91894eb3c9c1bd4ac0ca2fed020d0cd3a15b72e185c45da5a156bfa5fa65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 37c | 307.79$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.42 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 210.77$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 146.22$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 63c | 122.12$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 42c | 107.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 47c | 107.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…bdbabacked Yes | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 62c | 95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 60c | 92.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 60c | 91.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 68c | 87.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 86.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 60c | 86.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 61c | 85.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 60c | 84.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 82.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 38c | 78.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked No | 56c | 75.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…1e18backed Yes | 40c | 74.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 38c | 67.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 60c | 66.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 65.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 75c | 65.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 65.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 64.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 38c | 64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 62.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 76c | 60.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 57c | 59.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebd…ae71backed Yes | 39c | 59.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 58.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 61c | 50.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 49.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 44.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 42.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 54c | 39.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 45c | 37.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 37.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 36.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 56c | 36.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 52c | 35.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 35.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 34.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked Yes | 38c | 34.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 72c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 38c | 26.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5d…e60abacked Yes | 45c | 25.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 63c | 24.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 68c | 18.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 17.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 16.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.