Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8368d044e3d61a12c5f5ae3d107f4af33e0ee4420c5856236569347d6c017df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 584.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked No | 77c | 450$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.92 | 58 | 93.1%54 W · 4 L | +19.3wins | +0.33per pick | 60cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 174.44$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 20c | 168.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 447 | 66.9%299 W · 148 L | +39.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 153.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.48 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed Yes | 51c | 129.82$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 138 | 47.8%66 W · 72 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 24c | 119.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 18c | 87.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 20c | 68.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6e…e63cbacked Yes | 17c | 67.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 66.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 21c | 57.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,124 | 55.4%623 W · 501 L | -29.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 51c | 50.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 49.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 218 | 60.1%131 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 34.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 80c | 33.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 1,612 | 60.4%974 W · 638 L | -22.0wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,655 | 47.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 73c | 28.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 27.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 255 | 60.4%154 W · 101 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 74c | 17.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 352 | 76.4%269 W · 83 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 80c | 16.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 1,145 | 63.5%727 W · 418 L | +30.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.