Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa93e8d00ffead225baf40758c7c000478f726640b2a894def26b44e9647d6429
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 2,930$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,813.55 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 599.35$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.23 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 60c | 545.64$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.9 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 326.42$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 12c | 254.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 62c | 189.77$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.38 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 178.59$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 171.76$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…ca41backed Yes | 41c | 152$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 147.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.79 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 147.25$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 36c | 139.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 136.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 120$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 41c | 107$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 101.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 96.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 64c | 95.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 93.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 39c | 73.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 31c | 66.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 61c | 62.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 58.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 57.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 39c | 55.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 68c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 52.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 62c | 52.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 49c | 48.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…0b47backed Yes | 75c | 41.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…dcfdbacked No | 60c | 40.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes | 40c | 39.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 37.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 35.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7137…0c12backed Yes | 32c | 34.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7107backed Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 53c | 28.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 28.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e1…ac51backed No | 62c | 27.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 27.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 60c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed Yes | 74c | 25.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 79c | 25.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 63c | 25.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fa…7baabacked Yes | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 80c | 25.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 24.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 68c | 24.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 24.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 45c | 24.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9b…3351backed No | 64c | 21.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 65c | 20.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 20.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 64c | 19.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 74c | 18.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 74c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 62c | 17.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…d3f4backed No | 62c | 16.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.