Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe839ad834637a1a36d5fbdff53f309d0ed6e90adeb980ee698017d22fede3379
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 3c | 959.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 2c | 615.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 70c | 536$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.48 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 12c | 516.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…4b79backed Yes | 46c | 323.05$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.05 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 48c | 308.72$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 236.62$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.3 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 224.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 24c | 209.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 54c | 204.26$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 63c | 191.4$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 175.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 38c | 168.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 166.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 162.82$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 16c | 153.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 16c | 151.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 23c | 151.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 147.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 23c | 140.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 64c | 140.31$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 137.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…2dedbacked Yes | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 128.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 61c | 124.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 55c | 112.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 80c | 111.71$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 108.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 106.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 46c | 105.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 21c | 104.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.67 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 77c | 103.51$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 49c | 102.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0528…ca3fbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 78c | 97.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 38c | 95.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 55c | 91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 32c | 85.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 84.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 66c | 80.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 58c | 79.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 53c | 78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 74.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 72.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 70c | 71.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 68.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…ee36backed Yes | 20c | 68.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed Yes | 17c | 65.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 46c | 65.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 77c | 63.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 74c | 62.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 53c | 62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 27c | 54.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 41c | 54.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…aa1bbacked Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 52.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 52c | 49.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 48.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 54c | 48.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 35c | 46.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 77c | 42.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 40c | 42.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 53c | 42.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked No | 38c | 41.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 42c | 40.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…1a28backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 77c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 47c | 37.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 54c | 36.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes | 74c | 36.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 46c | 34.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…a8d7backed Yes | 65c | 33.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 40c | 32.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc7…b6b0backed Yes | 53c | 31.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 53c | 29.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4b…dccfbacked Yes | 56c | 27.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…c91dbacked Yes | 73c | 27.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 43c | 27.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 27.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea77…ed25backed No | 55c | 27.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 39c | 25.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 77c | 25.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 52c | 25.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 52c | 25.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…fd34backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 23.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…9ad0backed Yes | 80c | 21.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e0…38c2backed Yes | 75c | 20.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.