Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe866d1550247b749db5aa1821bc708b7d762b06e7e79ad8902a61e2fa53f2d50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsof Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, Cal State Fullerton Titans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,128 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 50c | 5,788$2,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,892.36 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44fd…b634backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 52c | 5,114$2,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,454.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Cal State Fullerton Titans | 49c | 3,333$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,633.16 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Cal State Fullerton Titans | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.99 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Cal State Fullerton Titans | 51c | 2,552$1,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.95 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Cal State Fullerton Titans | 52c | 2,239$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.31 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cal State Fullerton Titans | 47c | 1,339$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.15 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 57c | 733.97$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.08 | 343 | 43.4%149 W · 194 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 49c | 606.65$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.39 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…ee58backed Cal State Fullerton Titans | 52c | 568.65$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.38 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Cal State Fullerton Titans | 52c | 348.79$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.37 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 55c | 321.63$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.73 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 48c | 321.1$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.97 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Cal State Fullerton Titans | 52c | 190.63$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Cal State Fullerton Titans | 52c | 186.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 248 | 57.3%142 W · 106 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 48c | 150.79$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.41 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 51c | 148.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed Cal State Fullerton Titans | 53c | 135.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 48c | 130$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 247 | 37.7%93 W · 154 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a9…642dbacked Cal State Fullerton Titans | 52c | 121.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 49c | 99.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 214 | 55.6%119 W · 95 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 49c | 98.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 49c | 96.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 49c | 88.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 50c | 68.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bb…6cc9backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 49c | 60.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 50c | 60.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 48c | 60.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Cal State Fullerton Titans | 53c | 58.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 172 | 58.7%101 W · 71 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ac…b988backed Cal State Fullerton Titans | 52c | 57.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cal State Fullerton Titans | 49c | 55.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 49c | 46.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 213 | 42.3%90 W · 123 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 49c | 39.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 48c | 38.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 276 | 50.7%140 W · 136 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…fa4bbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 56c | 34.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…2e70backed Cal State Fullerton Titans | 52c | 34.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 50c | 32.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Cal State Fullerton Titans | 52c | 29.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Cal State Fullerton Titans | 52c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 47c | 21.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-5.5)this page
- Cal State Fullerton Titans vs. Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsHawaii Rainbow Warriors won
- Cal State Fullerton Titans vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: O/U 156.5Under won
- Cal State Fullerton Titans vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: O/U 157.5Under won
- Spread: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-4.5)Hawaii Rainbow Warriors won
- Spread: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-6.5)Hawaii Rainbow Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.