TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsof Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, Cal State Fullerton Titans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,128

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,128 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors50c5,788$2,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,892.365,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors52c5,114$2,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,454.82445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Cal State Fullerton Titans49c3,333$1,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,633.162,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Cal State Fullerton Titans51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.9948855.1%269 W · 219 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Cal State Fullerton Titans51c2,552$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.9510648.1%51 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Cal State Fullerton Titans52c2,239$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.317337%27 W · 46 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cal State Fullerton Titans47c1,339$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.1512,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors57c733.97$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.0834343.4%149 W · 194 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors49c606.65$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.3978052.2%407 W · 373 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x692e…ee58backed Cal State Fullerton Titans52c568.65$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.383828.9%11 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked Cal State Fullerton Titans52c348.79$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.3714459%85 W · 59 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors55c321.63$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.734,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors48c321.1$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.971,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Cal State Fullerton Titans52c190.63$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1333855%186 W · 152 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Cal State Fullerton Titans52c186.15$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.824857.3%142 W · 106 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors48c150.79$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.4111850%59 W · 59 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors51c148.69$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.861,16255.2%641 W · 521 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Cal State Fullerton Titans53c135.16$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.468361.4%51 W · 32 L+9.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+16.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors48c130$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.624737.7%93 W · 154 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x02a9…642dbacked Cal State Fullerton Titans52c121.49$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.171942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors49c99.13$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5521455.6%119 W · 95 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors49c98.81$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4762451.1%319 W · 305 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors49c96.06$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3522047.7%105 W · 115 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors49c88.26$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0192246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors50c68.82$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6960954.5%332 W · 277 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1bb…6cc9backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors49c60.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9510849.1%53 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors50c60.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.31,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors48c60.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3816650%83 W · 83 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Cal State Fullerton Titans53c58.92$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2317258.7%101 W · 71 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3ac…b988backed Cal State Fullerton Titans52c57.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.741050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cal State Fullerton Titans49c55.48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.093,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors49c46.89$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9621342.3%90 W · 123 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ada…b8a0backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors49c39.65$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.223339.4%13 W · 20 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors48c38.57$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0627650.7%140 W · 136 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f05…fa4bbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors56c34.75$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6132…2e70backed Cal State Fullerton Titans52c34.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.841942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors50c32.8$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3464647.5%307 W · 339 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed Cal State Fullerton Titans52c29.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.463565.7%23 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+21.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Cal State Fullerton Titans52c22.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6730652%159 W · 147 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors47c21.79$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.621,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.