Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe87618731c8cf3e2ccc14195d6c317af2ba0d4d005677bd639182206a3c1a20f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0d8…59f5backed Yes | 33c | 1,739$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 1,216$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.6 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 700$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.12 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 648.63$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.03 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 309.46$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 243.29$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 232.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 43c | 181.76$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 63c | 170$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 144.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 143.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 45c | 137.74$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 45c | 129.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 122$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 44c | 121.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 66c | 108.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…a6e4backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 17c | 86.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 62c | 86.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 79.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 68c | 73.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 56c | 67.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 62.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 53c | 56.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 54.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 64c | 50.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 52c | 49.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 44.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 37.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 55c | 36.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked Yes | 37c | 35.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 37c | 35.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 66c | 34.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 34.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…dbffbacked Yes | 43c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 56c | 24.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 48c | 24.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 67c | 21.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 51c | 19.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 63c | 19.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 60c | 18.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 62c | 16.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.