Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8792b698c8d499c90f4dd39754fda6f987e2875cf32c980a37aff8fab1a2e30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Down | 73c | 5,729$4,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.06 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…d061backed Down | 79c | 4,276$3,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.04 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Up | 44c | 3,687$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605.29 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Up | 47c | 2,963$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.21 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc428…458abacked Down | 48c | 2,683$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Up | 10c | 2,649$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.33 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 33c | 2,480$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.44 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up | 53c | 2,288$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.84 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Up | 63c | 1,660$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.7 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Down | 77c | 1,306$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.7 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Up | 5c | 1,250$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 304 | 38.8%118 W · 186 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Up | 57c | 1,113$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.16 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Down | 42c | 1,038$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.39 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ec…48a5backed Up | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…dacabacked Up | 33c | 799.99$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…6f22backed Up | 61c | 709.19$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…e88ebacked Up | 60c | 648.33$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Up | 59c | 646.09$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.59 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27e2…01f2backed Up | 67c | 626.85$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…9603backed Down | 43c | 537.28$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.17 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Up | 14c | 419.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 47c | 400$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Down | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +98%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…2f7cbacked Down | 51c | 340$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 36c | 328.26$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.63 | 303 | 43.2%131 W · 172 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Up | 55c | 306.67$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.67 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Up | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc74…4035backed Down | 55c | 277.98$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Down | 27c | 250$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Up | 48c | 215.34$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.9 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…ee64backed Up | 52c | 215$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…8022backed Up | 77c | 209.99$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 55c | 205$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a57…7b0abacked Up | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6384backed Down | 51c | 179.87$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.44 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…3011backed Up | 42c | 124.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Down | 39c | 105.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b71…cb46backed Up | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 32c | 84.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 357 | 50.4%180 W · 177 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…162cbacked Up | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Down | 34c | 74.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 96 | 40.6%39 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Up | 22c | 62.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3441…8e5cbacked Up | 71c | 58.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…c2cbbacked Up | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa96…9592backed Down | 39c | 51.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Down | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…ef14backed Down | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718f…f25abacked Up | 62c | 32.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa743…61dcbacked Down | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c5…787cbacked Down | 59c | 29.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked Down | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Down | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…b30bbacked Down | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Up | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed Down | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…a221backed Up | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82af…f7d1backed Down | 76c | 16.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.