WNBA · resolved market
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 169.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8798880bd8586283d8c9165e900b41a43e8b0c62a54ddeb44d4b9b640ae440f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 55c | 4,068$2,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,229.82 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 42c | 2,115$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.87 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…a053backed Over | 40c | 1,393$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.3 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 60c | 1,361$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.22 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 987.46$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.42 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 51c | 874.96$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.98 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 60c | 337$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.8 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 54c | 258.7$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Under | 65c | 224$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…6e53backed Over | 52c | 205.77$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 55c | 205.67$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.55 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd4…91f7backed Under | 55c | 205.67$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.55 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.2wins | +0.42per pick | 48cpaid | +87%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 49c | 196.08$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 46c | 185.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.05 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Under | 61c | 163$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 40c | 121.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 109.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 40c | 107.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 46c | 104.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 40c | 102.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…764bbacked Over | 51c | 96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 57c | 69.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Under | 53c | 62.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 46c | 59.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 52.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…d91bbacked Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 40c | 43.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 42c | 42.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Under | 65c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 45c | 38.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Under | 53c | 37.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 33.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…37d9backed Under | 42c | 32.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 51c | 31.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 27.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Under | 56c | 26.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Under | 55c | 25.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Over | 62c | 25.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 169.5this page
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix MercuryPhoenix Mercury won
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 166.5Under won
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 167.5Under won
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 168.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.