WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a78ebd15414fa5469bc2a237ee8ad640ad351607bb829e5717f7cdebea08e28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phoenix Mercuryof Phoenix Mercury, Seattle Storm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 4,181$2,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,009.08 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Seattle Storm | 50c | 2,700$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 2,127$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.81 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Seattle Storm | 48c | 1,744$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.12 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Seattle Storm | 46c | 1,626$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.88 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -7.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…29e0backed Seattle Storm | 48c | 1,609$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Seattle Storm | 48c | 1,608$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.55 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…c00abacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 1,481$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 1,157$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.69 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 1,100$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.99 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Seattle Storm | 48c | 1,024$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.52 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ce…9f80backed Seattle Storm | 48c | 1,003$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.21 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 965.09$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.45 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 867.88$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 609.13$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.57 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 551.8$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.73 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…6dddbacked Seattle Storm | 48c | 539.26$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c7…c7a7backed Seattle Storm | 48c | 360$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Storm | 50c | 356.44$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.66 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 255.37$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.64 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Seattle Storm | 47c | 210.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Seattle Storm | 38c | 180.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 165.68$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 147$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Seattle Storm | 48c | 111.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Seattle Storm | 47c | 110.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Seattle Storm | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafc5…2b1dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Seattle Storm | 48c | 94.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Seattle Storm | 48c | 87.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Seattle Storm | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 184 | 41.8%77 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Seattle Storm | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Seattle Storm | 48c | 58.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…d3fdbacked Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 55.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Seattle Storm | 48c | 49.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Seattle Storm | 47c | 42.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…18cebacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 35.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Seattle Storm | 47c | 35.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Phoenix Mercury | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Phoenix Mercury | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Seattle Storm | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5)this page
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix MercuryPhoenix Mercury won
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 166.5Under won
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 167.5Under won
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 168.5Under won
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 169.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.