WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd69506c03a397acfab441832a8587f0c9162bb65ea32f7cc58fdf55b3b43cd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phoenix Mercuryof Phoenix Mercury, Seattle Storm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 3,156$1,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.9 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.98 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…7531backed Seattle Storm | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 1,152$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.33 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Seattle Storm | 48c | 1,135$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Seattle Storm | 53c | 632.53$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.24 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 422.57$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.8 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 292$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.34 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 171.09$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.97 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 165.39$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +7.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 83.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Seattle Storm | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 50.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…0d64backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Seattle Storm | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 320 | 49.4%158 W · 162 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 38.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Seattle Storm | 52c | 32.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -16.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 31.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Seattle Storm | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 314 | 48.4%152 W · 162 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Phoenix Mercury | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Phoenix Mercury | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Phoenix Mercury | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Phoenix Mercury | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)this page
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix MercuryPhoenix Mercury won
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 166.5Under won
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 167.5Under won
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 168.5Under won
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 169.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.