TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Phoenix Mercuryof Seattle Storm, Phoenix Mercury
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$146,248
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$157,210

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,248 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Phoenix Mercury64c43,528$27,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,777.018937.1%33 W · 56 L-8.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Storm34c15,079$5,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,112.131,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Seattle Storm36c13,889$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00014353.8%77 W · 66 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb915…8da5backed Phoenix Mercury61c11,908$7,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,643.946848.5%33 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Seattle Storm1c8,364$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3210923.9%26 W · 83 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Seattle Storm39c7,500$2,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,924.963647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Seattle Storm39c6,393$2,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,493.2410338.8%40 W · 63 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Seattle Storm34c6,205$2,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,129.6378548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Storm37c5,748$2,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,152.2240550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Phoenix Mercury61c4,637$2,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,808.4336154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Seattle Storm9c3,576$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.8919428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed Seattle Storm40c3,541$1,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.845156.9%29 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Phoenix Mercury62c2,735$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.2214452.8%76 W · 68 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42a…4b3cbacked Seattle Storm9c2,500$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23210749.5%53 W · 54 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Seattle Storm6c2,008$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5434726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Storm39c1,938$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.9889349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Storm38c1,918$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.9883748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Phoenix Mercury79c1,862$1,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.0255255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed Seattle Storm20c1,833$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37012234.4%42 W · 80 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Seattle Storm5c1,600$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010838.9%42 W · 66 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Seattle Storm20c1,419$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.72437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Phoenix Mercury60c1,404$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.4329654.4%161 W · 135 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5400…8a89backed Seattle Storm2c1,403$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-83%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury76c1,157$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.91,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Phoenix Mercury79c997.07$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.38580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Seattle Storm38c935.52$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.992248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec6…d9edbacked Seattle Storm8c899.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719318.3%17 W · 76 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Seattle Storm36c813.72$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.9446247%217 W · 245 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked Seattle Storm24c807.64$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.755642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54d0…8e20backed Phoenix Mercury62c806.45$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.452560%15 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Seattle Storm39c676.13$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.694829.2%14 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Seattle Storm40c637.08$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.8332743.7%143 W · 184 L-23.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Seattle Storm40c620.29$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.923245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e9…67ffbacked Seattle Storm38c537.64$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.31850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe187…a69cbacked Phoenix Mercury65c533.48$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.485766.7%38 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Phoenix Mercury67c519.94$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.5823049.6%114 W · 116 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed Seattle Storm39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1958733.3%29 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Seattle Storm30c499.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1509139.6%36 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Seattle Storm7c496.88$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.32908.9%8 W · 82 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51da…a701backed Phoenix Mercury61c491.8$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.816153.4%86 W · 75 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Seattle Storm39c480.61$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.237746.8%36 W · 41 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Phoenix Mercury62c474.77$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.154751.1%24 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Phoenix Mercury68c457.68$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.461258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Phoenix Mercury79c390.04$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6113358.6%78 W · 55 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x226b…bb68backed Seattle Storm7c379.39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.38395.1%2 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Seattle Storm14c337.17$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6831043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Phoenix Mercury63c326.86$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.945862.1%36 W · 22 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Seattle Storm34c325.74$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7515741.4%65 W · 92 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Seattle Storm36c277.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019446.4%90 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Seattle Storm39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009635.4%34 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Seattle Storm39c256.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9964152%333 W · 308 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Seattle Storm39c256$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.846741.8%28 W · 39 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Seattle Storm39c250$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.54353.5%23 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…ef8bbacked Seattle Storm39c242.11$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fa7…089dbacked Phoenix Mercury62c238.95$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-67.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Seattle Storm18c237.59$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.839146.2%42 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Seattle Storm40c229.7$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8834448%165 W · 179 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Seattle Storm14c222.93$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9916633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Seattle Storm18c204$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7225246%116 W · 136 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Seattle Storm19c197.29$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4431448.4%152 W · 162 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Seattle Storm16c187.93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4410634.9%37 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Seattle Storm40c184.66$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8637850%189 W · 189 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Seattle Storm38c181.96$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Phoenix Mercury62c165.27$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.83265.6%21 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Phoenix Mercury61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.931136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Seattle Storm20c158$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.430649%150 W · 156 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fd3…d91bbacked Seattle Storm38c156.55$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.39616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick51cpaid-70.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Phoenix Mercury66c154.74$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5517656.8%100 W · 76 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Seattle Storm27c151.85$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110244.1%45 W · 57 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Seattle Storm22c150$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7534753.9%187 W · 160 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bb4…4551backed Seattle Storm37c148.41$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.918149.4%40 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8345…5cadbacked Phoenix Mercury67c146.06$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.371553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Seattle Storm37c136.58$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7732049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Seattle Storm14c135$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5611351.3%58 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba58…28c2backed Phoenix Mercury75c133.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.173455.9%19 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd654…45c2backed Seattle Storm39c130$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.74060%24 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Storm11c128$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0837650.3%189 W · 187 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Seattle Storm37c124$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2216450%82 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b8d…44b1backed Seattle Storm33c120.4$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010237.3%38 W · 64 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Seattle Storm38c119.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9932346.7%151 W · 172 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15c5…4692backed Phoenix Mercury64c112.64$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.465763.2%36 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Seattle Storm16c112.34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7523955.2%132 W · 107 L+12.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Phoenix Mercury70c112$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.63253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Seattle Storm17c110.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3836454.1%197 W · 167 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Seattle Storm25c108$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.518746%86 W · 101 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Seattle Storm40c105.01$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427750.6%39 W · 38 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Storm38c101$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3812751.2%65 W · 62 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Seattle Storm11c100.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5611841.5%49 W · 69 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2045…c77cbacked Phoenix Mercury62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383357.6%19 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Seattle Storm33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336549.2%32 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Phoenix Mercury79c93.3$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5912650.8%64 W · 62 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked Seattle Storm27c92.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255246.2%24 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Phoenix Mercury62c88.13$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1739947.1%188 W · 211 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Seattle Storm20c81.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5219031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd9f5…0688backed Phoenix Mercury61c81$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.596145.9%28 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf655…7f1abacked Seattle Storm40c80$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323732.4%12 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe149…ac8cbacked Seattle Storm27c79.89$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.52814.3%4 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-48.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Phoenix Mercury60c76.15$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4641145.7%188 W · 223 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd93d…27a0backed Seattle Storm41c69.36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.117045.7%32 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee8…9197backed Phoenix Mercury67c65.6$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.655855.2%32 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.