Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe88da38f44c881cbde15f489bc86f5a2cf15d18bdc83ac6d487a7103abc47f70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 6c | 1,233$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 17c | 1,070$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.02 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,051$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.3 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 6c | 860.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 14c | 694.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 17c | 561.7$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…67aabacked Yes | 7c | 526.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 10c | 480.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 433.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 13c | 381.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 314.21$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 265$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 19c | 258.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 236.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…3bdbbacked Yes | 7c | 217.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 131.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 119.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 113.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 13c | 110.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 25c | 101.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…6788backed Yes | 23c | 90.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6255…2718backed Yes | 22c | 79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 77.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173d…cbb0backed Yes | 18c | 74.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 22c | 68.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 17c | 66.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 15c | 65.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 64.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 56.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 28c | 52.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.