Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf51ad7d179ebe0419adac3eaec6c803c09c84faeccf5b914a6bc187bc2a75afb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 23c | 1,164$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.64 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 6c | 999.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 42c | 725.16$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.58 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 29c | 700.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.58 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 46c | 680.04$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.89 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 22c | 654.18$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.76 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 27c | 587.57$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.49 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 490.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 486.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.57 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…67aabacked No | 9c | 458.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 76c | 392.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.83 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed No | 10c | 340.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebb…45fcbacked No | 9c | 297.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed No | 11c | 203$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 199.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 186.4$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed No | 6c | 171.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ad…2f42backed No | 8c | 166.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 159.21$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 122.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 43c | 116.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 106.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 11c | 105.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 43c | 97.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…64d0backed Yes | 71c | 94.02$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 93.8$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 90$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…64e5backed Yes | 72c | 81.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 28c | 80.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…f62abacked Yes | 77c | 74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 56c | 70.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 67.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec7…12f7backed No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 51c | 52.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…2404backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a60…ea7dbacked Yes | 77c | 47.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 27c | 47.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 73c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 33c | 34.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 29c | 34.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 70c | 32.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 34c | 31.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…ceecbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…0f6ebacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 73c | 22.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 68c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 64c | 17.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 15.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.