Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8efaee9f7353cbabaff1799f077df8100c814c9c3665ae5341f49b757693f1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 635.4$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.26 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 74c | 321.2$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.38 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 313.22$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 47c | 252.21$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.26 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 154.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 137.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 126$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 124.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 79c | 124.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79de…2ea1backed Yes | 29c | 121$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 111.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 103.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 43c | 99.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…2658backed Yes | 55c | 95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 15c | 94.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 59c | 85.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…2e64backed No | 68c | 83.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes | 33c | 74.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 67.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 64.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 38c | 64.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 61.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 20c | 58.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 41c | 54.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 73c | 53.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 20c | 52.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…b5bebacked No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 40.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 39.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 36.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 35.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 60c | 34.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed No | 63c | 33.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 32.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 50c | 30.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 29.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 40c | 25.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 61c | 25.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 55c | 24.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 48c | 24.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 60c | 18.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 61c | 17.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 88°F or higher on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.