Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x367cc37843280919e055a1a62494bc40e90c5a6292ffda2ba735c259c68b3270
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 1c | 2,042$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 536.79$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.42 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 526.04$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 47c | 334.14$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.53 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 16c | 309.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 304.23$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 188.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 172.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 24c | 168.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 138.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 37c | 133.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 131.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 19c | 126.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 64c | 125.44$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79de…2ea1backed Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 20c | 115.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…bd3bbacked Yes | 29c | 112$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 78c | 110.68$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 38c | 109.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 109.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 104.38$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 49c | 101.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 44c | 95.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 41c | 95.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 60c | 83.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 77c | 81.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 41c | 78.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 67c | 78.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 22c | 77.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 75.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 22c | 72.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 61.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 60.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x006e…59dbbacked Yes | 68c | 58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 26c | 53.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 52c | 50.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd311…8145backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 48.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 45c | 46.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 43c | 39.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 32c | 39.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 47c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 72c | 38.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…1652backed Yes | 36c | 36.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 35.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 74c | 34.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…0edebacked No | 75c | 33.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 42c | 33.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed No | 69c | 31.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 67c | 29.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed Yes | 66c | 29.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 28.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 59c | 22.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f54…8303backed Yes | 57c | 19.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…529dbacked Yes | 80c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 79c | 18.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 75c | 18.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 17.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 75c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 70c | 14.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 88°F or higher on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.