MLB · resolved market
Orioles vs. Giants
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8fe8ed5996055059782954f95b7d32403c900fe318115b63c89e9d44b8fcb62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oriolesof Orioles, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3aec…0f2dbacked Giants | 48c | 6,000$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343c…741dbacked Orioles | 52c | 5,880$3,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,822.4 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Giants | 49c | 5,504$2,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,696.96 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Orioles | 46c | 4,742$2,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.68 | 217 | 47%102 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Giants | 6c | 4,007$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Giants | 48c | 3,674$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.74 | 995 | 49.9%497 W · 498 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Orioles | 50c | 3,522$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,753 | 439 | 49.4%217 W · 222 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Orioles | 52c | 3,463$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.03 | 234 | 55.6%130 W · 104 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Orioles | 51c | 2,719$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.56 | 564 | 51.1%288 W · 276 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Giants | 54c | 2,629$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.48 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Orioles | 52c | 2,451$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.57 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ea…0fc1backed Giants | 65c | 2,336$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.68 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Giants | 53c | 2,000$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.48 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Orioles | 52c | 1,700$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Orioles | 47c | 1,258$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.39 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +6.5wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Giants | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Giants | 3c | 689.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 543 | 45.5%247 W · 296 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Giants | 47c | 638$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.86 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Orioles | 46c | 630.43$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.43 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Giants | 47c | 615.49$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.28 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Giants | 48c | 520$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Orioles | 52c | 499.99$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 308 | 50%154 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae09…fa6dbacked Orioles | 52c | 459.62$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.62 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Giants | 5c | 403.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Orioles | 52c | 392.87$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.58 | 549 | 41%225 W · 324 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Giants | 48c | 343.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.12 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Orioles | 53c | 327$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.27 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Giants | 64c | 313.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 345 | 50.7%175 W · 170 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Giants | 49c | 299.74$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.25 | 3,314 | 46.3%1,533 W · 1,781 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4201…f6edbacked Orioles | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Orioles | 53c | 288$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.36 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…b560backed Giants | 31c | 272.38$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Orioles | 56c | 267$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.44 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Orioles | 44c | 249.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Giants | 49c | 235$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.15 | 1,057 | 50.4%533 W · 524 L | -9.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Orioles | 46c | 233$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.68 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…1880backed Orioles | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Giants | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Orioles | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d9…b00bbacked Giants | 48c | 177.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.83 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…4e82backed Orioles | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 600 | 52.2%313 W · 287 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Giants | 51c | 129$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 850 | 47.4%403 W · 447 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed Giants | 48c | 123$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 254 | 54.3%138 W · 116 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Orioles | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 1,400 | 55.1%772 W · 628 L | -29.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3e…e822backed Orioles | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Orioles | 52c | 115$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…95a1backed Giants | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 401 | 44.1%177 W · 224 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…6ce2backed Orioles | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…85b2backed Orioles | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Orioles | 62c | 89.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 4,197 | 50.2%2,106 W · 2,091 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d61…1808backed Giants | 63c | 84.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Orioles | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe708…e61cbacked Orioles | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Giants | 46c | 76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 2,058 | 53.8%1,107 W · 951 L | +33.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…246cbacked Giants | 49c | 61.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…1290backed Orioles | 52c | 56.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed Orioles | 51c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Giants | 41c | 48.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b2…8d2ebacked Giants | 53c | 46.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…872cbacked Giants | 59c | 45.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…5f0fbacked Giants | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 342 | 57.6%197 W · 145 L | +25.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed Giants | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 389 | 51.2%199 W · 190 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Orioles | 77c | 38.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7207…b2b8backed Giants | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Orioles | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 255 | 48.6%124 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…26ebbacked Orioles | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 157 | 56.1%88 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Orioles | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Orioles | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Orioles | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Orioles vs. Giantsthis page
- Orioles vs. Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.