NBA · resolved market
NBA Playoffs: Will a #1 seed win the Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9203a8318fabb0ba69a5108c8434bdebaeb1dec5afae19bd2d48e40509ed323
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7c2…64aabacked Yes | 55c | 26,345$14,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,855.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa745…c20fbacked No | 45c | 26,345$11,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,855.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 50c | 19,200$9,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,657.3 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…4347backed No | 51c | 18,744$9,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,480.15 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,103$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 71c | 3,199$2,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.89 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…b07cbacked No | 29c | 2,998$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 20c | 659.24$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.38 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…2cd1backed Yes | 65c | 490.15$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 71c | 346$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.71 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 60c | 330.45$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.5 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 25c | 274.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe822…8ad9backed Yes | 45c | 248.89$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +250.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26c1…1098backed No | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 34c | 124.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…9b31backed Yes | 76c | 100.73$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78fc…0c79backed Yes | 25c | 82.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331a…d80ebacked No | 28c | 53.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 35c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 49c | 40.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…dbdcbacked Yes | 74c | 34.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.