Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9297860f15f8463e886977616c1f27045fbe78a8a6ffd8875ae8128c9016ba8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 64c | 996.66$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.83 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 32c | 522.81$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 23c | 372.46$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes | 66c | 314.44$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.44 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 72c | 295.42$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 36c | 283.41$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 69c | 253.49$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.49 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 251.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 236.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 30c | 218.53$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 199.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 175.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea2…0f20backed Yes | 62c | 164.52$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 33c | 154.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5d…38eabacked Yes | 65c | 153.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 36c | 142.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 26c | 121.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 32c | 120.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 62c | 115.17$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 40c | 111.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 109.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 19c | 104.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 74c | 98.45$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 62c | 96.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked No | 41c | 86.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 63c | 72.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 31c | 70.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 36c | 66.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 37c | 50.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 34c | 50.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 74c | 46.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 41c | 46.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x208d…df71backed No | 37c | 30.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 39c | 29.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 61c | 24.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 61c | 21.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…aa2dbacked Yes | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 66c | 21.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 66c | 20.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 64c | 20.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 76c | 16.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…214cbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.