Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ccc8000c0e2f5366bdcf488022542cf65bd30cce4f1f42e5920d920feb2fcba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 26c | 771.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 563.87$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 522.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 358.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 25c | 295.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 14c | 283.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 74c | 254$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 241.01$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked No | 79c | 214.71$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 176.27$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 175.88$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 163$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 27c | 154.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 143.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 139.81$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 119.86$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 114.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 74c | 114$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 76c | 113.98$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 109.47$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd334…1c8abacked Yes | 18c | 91.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…d28abacked Yes | 24c | 63.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…58acbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1165…f10cbacked Yes | 24c | 52.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 51.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 27c | 38.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 74c | 33.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 73c | 28.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed No | 75c | 25.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 20.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 77c | 19.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 73c | 16.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…d3f4backed No | 75c | 13.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 76c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.