Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe93c25474aaf70e5ae6963ef11273e8ab96b7f30717522f44fb73839fcfde475
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 79c | 1,563$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.92 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,481$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 36c | 1,477$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.95 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 69c | 1,186$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.22 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 810.8$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 543.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 333$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.01 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 318.98$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.43 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 241$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 228.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 28c | 215.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked Yes | 17c | 193.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 192.9$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 190.44$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 74c | 158.04$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 30c | 158$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 157.12$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 59c | 146$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 109.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…767cbacked Yes | 12c | 100.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 96.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 64c | 84.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 48c | 82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 75.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 52c | 62.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 35c | 60.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 57.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 21c | 57.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 53.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 41c | 48.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 25c | 46.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 45.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 43.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 30.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 52c | 29.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 63c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 27.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 77c | 26.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 56c | 24.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…5f3bbacked No | 71c | 19.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 74c | 19.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 61c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…e863backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 64c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 64c | 16.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a9…bd85backed No | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe327…9bbbbacked No | 74c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.