Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb275ca3439397bb37a3b7ce6476c795d94550115115202683e260cbee178437c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 69c | 2,077$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.41 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 58c | 1,556$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.1 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 1,255$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 48c | 1,043$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.62 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 46c | 936.17$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.59 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 54c | 597.95$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.94 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 47c | 589.66$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.84 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 458$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 305$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.34 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 31c | 301.87$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 41c | 298.62$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.28 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 45c | 268.37$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.54 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 47c | 265.52$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.07 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 265.35$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 69c | 263.11$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 262.45$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.97 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 27c | 258.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.01 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 185.29$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 15c | 173.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 45c | 153.54$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 37c | 146$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 47c | 144.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.18 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 70c | 140$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 75c | 135$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 133$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 128$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 52c | 126.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 29c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 115$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 46c | 112.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 102.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 101.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81c…14f4backed Yes | 74c | 100.11$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 21c | 99.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 29c | 98.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 46c | 94.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 93.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 12c | 91.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…dbdabacked Yes | 44c | 91.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 48c | 85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 54c | 85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 32c | 83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 69c | 79.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 49c | 78.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 38c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 69.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 52c | 69.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 59c | 66.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 24c | 61.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 64c | 61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 20c | 60.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…fb0ebacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 54c | 59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 56.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 36c | 55.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 59c | 52.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 54c | 50.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 39c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 52c | 44.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 61c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 52c | 40.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 50c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 59c | 38.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 78c | 38.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 45c | 37.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 63c | 35.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 45c | 35.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 40c | 35.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 53c | 30.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 47c | 30.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 28.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 53c | 28.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 43c | 24.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…e863backed No | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…7abfbacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.