TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: DRX Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1 Academyof DRX Challengers, T1 Academy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$574,584
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$648,071

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $574,584 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 536 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked DRX Challengers33c150,368$49,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,617.644544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed T1 Academy67c143,143$95,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,237.1511750.4%59 W · 58 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67df…7b3bbacked T1 Academy71c29,454$20,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,565.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed DRX Challengers29c22,716$6,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,614.361,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd812…2558backed DRX Challengers50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00021137%78 W · 133 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed T1 Academy49c19,974$9,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,211.91,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b4c…e850backed DRX Challengers2c17,240$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.82010%2 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-74.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed T1 Academy70c15,930$11,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,738.316541.5%27 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4440…959abacked DRX Challengers30c14,000$4,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,201.369142.9%39 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x642f…d742backed DRX Challengers29c14,000$4,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,059.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked DRX Challengers31c13,000$4,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,09549940.7%203 W · 296 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3a1…3529backed T1 Academy72c11,881$8,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,326.69887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick67cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ab3…12b2backed DRX Challengers31c9,901$3,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,069.311070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+56.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf403…e176backed T1 Academy69c9,901$6,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,062.481020%2 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-69.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfd39…ddcfbacked T1 Academy70c9,831$6,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,947.36450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked T1 Academy72c8,500$6,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3806131.1%19 W · 42 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafda…0fccbacked DRX Challengers42c7,231$3,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,004.9316654.8%91 W · 75 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa89c…398fbacked DRX Challengers41c6,358$2,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,598.022429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed DRX Challengers31c6,000$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,86013344.4%59 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed T1 Academy72c5,794$4,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,647.3214637.7%55 W · 91 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked T1 Academy65c5,297$3,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,849.5370162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed T1 Academy64c5,269$3,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8901,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6286…5307backed T1 Academy70c4,951$3,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,483.781127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x632a…ac85backed DRX Challengers30c4,951$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,485.151070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+54.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked T1 Academy67c4,740$3,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,552.5619146.1%88 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked T1 Academy77c4,041$3,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.092,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed T1 Academy67c3,907$2,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,292.331,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked DRX Challengers33c3,872$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.1475942%319 W · 440 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28a4…8983backed DRX Challengers33c3,826$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.331127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-43.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed DRX Challengers1c3,789$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7189810.7%96 W · 802 L+2.6wins0.00per pick10cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed T1 Academy67c3,781$2,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.7337641.8%157 W · 219 L-18.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3c3…ac62backed T1 Academy67c3,753$2,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.551747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-29.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed DRX Challengers1c3,516$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.845833.6%21 W · 562 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+178.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed DRX Challengers42c3,093$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.781,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ae0…d6c7backed T1 Academy69c2,931$2,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.59862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed T1 Academy67c2,885$1,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.4699338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x755d…37e7backed T1 Academy67c2,822$1,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.1915166.2%100 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed DRX Challengers37c2,703$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.6716241.4%67 W · 95 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed DRX Challengers33c2,635$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.6854353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x512f…a99cbacked T1 Academy70c2,500$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7502330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7aee…a444backed DRX Challengers30c2,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7502454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2733…ac38backed DRX Challengers24c2,430$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5957536%27 W · 48 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed DRX Challengers31c2,389$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.492,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed DRX Challengers28c2,300$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.4567931.8%216 W · 463 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf44…0bbdbacked DRX Challengers36c2,196$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.532642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9750…0969backed T1 Academy68c2,061$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.511844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x882f…7583backed T1 Academy69c2,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6201100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked DRX Challengers29c1,941$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.7722336.8%82 W · 141 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed T1 Academy35c1,938$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.961,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed T1 Academy70c1,903$1,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.8619844.9%89 W · 109 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked T1 Academy72c1,861$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.7922547.6%107 W · 118 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc18…2ce9backed DRX Challengers41c1,789$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.53435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-42.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x49ba…7f3cbacked T1 Academy52c1,765$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.353100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+106.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed DRX Challengers60c1,760$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.5560855.8%339 W · 269 L-14.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a8c…f872backed T1 Academy70c1,589$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.9415754.8%86 W · 71 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cce…e832backed T1 Academy32c1,569$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,068.56425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked DRX Challengers32c1,567$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825433.5%85 W · 169 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed T1 Academy71c1,512$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.47977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6430…d6e7backed DRX Challengers31c1,501$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed DRX Challengers31c1,500$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46010937.6%41 W · 68 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d75…cf0bbacked DRX Challengers1c1,500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121766.3%11 W · 165 L-0.5wins0.00per pick7cpaid-46.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2615…c16dbacked T1 Academy68c1,402$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.7723357.1%133 W · 100 L-11.6wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed DRX Challengers17c1,390$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.342840.2%172 W · 256 L-32.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd857…c092backed DRX Challengers30c1,376$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.548938.2%34 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e5c…e1babacked DRX Challengers30c1,253$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc7c…958ebacked T1 Academy51c1,217$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5f…8a41backed DRX Challengers13c1,204$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0716040%64 W · 96 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked DRX Challengers17c1,201$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006041.7%25 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked T1 Academy71c1,127$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.761866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed DRX Challengers30c1,030$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.752,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fc4…0947backed DRX Challengers30c1,024$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked DRX Challengers29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29077131.8%245 W · 526 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed T1 Academy63c1,000$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.9211060%66 W · 44 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e01…2c8abacked DRX Challengers30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014840.5%60 W · 88 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed DRX Challengers30c999.98$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9922035.9%79 W · 141 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x721c…2433backed DRX Challengers35c999.98$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.991947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e8e…bc92backed DRX Challengers40c980$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed T1 Academy72c969.46$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.466556.9%37 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdc3…c0eabacked T1 Academy67c964.18$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.18955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x695d…60d5backed T1 Academy54c926.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.67825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-53.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x958a…c897backed DRX Challengers22c915.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005028%14 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed T1 Academy67c913$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.296836.8%25 W · 43 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f7d…99f8backed T1 Academy70c892$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.64100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+140.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed DRX Challengers31c890.86$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.381,02539.6%406 W · 619 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0275…d186backed T1 Academy71c851.01$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.0137554.7%205 W · 170 L-0.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked T1 Academy53c835.69$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.2853640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f00…f68fbacked T1 Academy63c817.39$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.372100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+108.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c3b…bb7bbacked DRX Challengers30c811$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.3475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccd9…f849backed T1 Academy57c799.99$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.882766.7%18 W · 9 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+53.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1c69…2e8bbacked DRX Challengers25c776.16$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.78520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f0b…50cdbacked DRX Challengers39c769.23$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002860.7%17 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4643…4166backed DRX Challengers30c718$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5425…f968backed T1 Academy70c702.67$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.87742.9%33 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed DRX Challengers31c700$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21717561.1%107 W · 68 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa209…0ac6backed DRX Challengers31c699.98$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94d8…8835backed T1 Academy72c699.09$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.341758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed DRX Challengers51c689.58$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.251,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6c0e…35f8backed T1 Academy70c657.39$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.2213540.7%55 W · 80 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed T1 Academy65c654.75$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.171,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed T1 Academy67c650$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.58033.8%27 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.