MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9435423e3f6788e301700f931c84b7a62a883d4b5a2e89a64accab968839606
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,351 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Philadelphia Phillies | 0c | 3,724$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 2,052$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.69 | 856 | 35.7%306 W · 550 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 2,045$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.46 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…152abacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 1,038$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.63 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.34per pick | 53cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 999.64$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 655.24$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.83 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 620.86$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.83 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 493.84$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.85 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 391.35$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.63 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 252$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 230.23$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 208.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -40%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 182.37$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 177.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.33 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 121.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 110.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 72.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 72.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…79afbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 70.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…f8d8backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 66.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 49.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 48.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 43.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 403 | 51.4%207 W · 196 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 39.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 37.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 34.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 33.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 28.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 849 | 49.1%417 W · 432 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 24.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Baltimore Orioles | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…7409backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 16.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.