Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Italy (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe94a54476729550283147318778bacdf485fd9346dccaf00f76fa7ab3178e352
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Luxembourgof Italy, Luxembourg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Italy | 22c | 5,555$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222 | 320 | 29.4%94 W · 226 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…7c16backed Luxembourg | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Luxembourg | 78c | 1,913$1,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.84 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Italy | 22c | 1,170$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.41 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +18.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Luxembourg | 77c | 927.94$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.07 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Italy | 13c | 899$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.92 | 222 | 26.6%59 W · 163 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Italy | 18c | 870.25$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.93 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Italy | 20c | 516.56$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 147 | 38.8%57 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Luxembourg | 80c | 485.45$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a4…cdb9backed Luxembourg | 78c | 458$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.76 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Luxembourg | 77c | 402$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.46 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Luxembourg | 78c | 333.26$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.82 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea1…c38ebacked Italy | 22c | 300.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Luxembourg | 79c | 180$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Luxembourg | 78c | 165.17$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 481 | 52.4%252 W · 229 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Italy | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 31.6%36 W · 78 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Italy | 11c | 122$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Luxembourg | 78c | 109.21$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 847 | 51%432 W · 415 L | +10.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Italy | 21c | 102.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Italy | 22c | 101$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Italy | 18c | 88.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 181 | 39.2%71 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Luxembourg | 77c | 81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Luxembourg | 78c | 78.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 235 | 52.8%124 W · 111 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe569…e759backed Italy | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 524 | 41.4%217 W · 307 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Italy | 36c | 69.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Luxembourg | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Luxembourg | 78c | 44.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Luxembourg | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Luxembourg | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 220 | 52.3%115 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…a5dfbacked Luxembourg | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 90 | 72.2%65 W · 25 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Luxembourg | 78c | 15.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 187 | 64.2%120 W · 67 L | +11.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b7…3267backed Luxembourg | 78c | 15.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Italy (-2.5)this page
- Luxembourg vs. Italy: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 0.5Over won
- Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 1.5Under won
- Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 2.5Under won
- Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 3.5Under won
- Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 4.5Under won
- Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Italy (-1.5)Luxembourg won
- Spread: Luxembourg (-1.5)Italy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.