Fifa International · resolved market
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64552b518f9d30ad898f4a213f00872d9ffc02bff64461159df07eea9d4337a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 33c | 2,446$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.25 | 592 | 30.1%178 W · 414 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e2…ffd9backed Over | 26c | 776.16$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.85 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 68c | 699.88$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.79 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 28c | 591$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.87 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…7c16backed Under | 70c | 581.21$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.96 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x374e…87c9backed Over | 35c | 464.94$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.25 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | +12.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 15c | 461.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 17c | 455.33$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 72c | 450$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Under | 70c | 409$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.29 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…cba6backed Over | 29c | 334.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 31c | 240.16$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 237 | 32.1%76 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…12ddbacked Over | 36c | 222.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 74c | 196.89$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 67c | 180$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 66c | 155$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8720…ea73backed Under | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 138.17$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Over | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 34c | 90.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 222 | 26.6%59 W · 163 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 17c | 77.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 239 | 40.6%97 W · 142 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 34c | 74.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 68c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 436 | 53.7%234 W · 202 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 67c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…fbb3backed Under | 73c | 59.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 129 | 57.4%74 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 68c | 51.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9444…5db6backed Over | 33c | 50.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,616 | 51.2%827 W · 789 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Under | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 156 | 55.1%86 W · 70 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 32c | 45.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 418 | 57.9%242 W · 176 L | +14.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 68c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 397 | 46.3%184 W · 213 L | -28.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed Under | 68c | 32.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 184 | 35.3%65 W · 119 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 69c | 30.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…3a2abacked Under | 74c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 69c | 22.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 68c | 21.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 481 | 52.4%252 W · 229 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 235 | 52.8%124 W · 111 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 3.5this page
- Luxembourg vs. Italy: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 0.5Over won
- Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 1.5Under won
- Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 2.5Under won
- Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 4.5Under won
- Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Italy (-1.5)Luxembourg won
- Spread: Italy (-2.5)Luxembourg won
- Spread: Luxembourg (-1.5)Italy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.