CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe94bed92d2db41c7b31f9dc73c97aef605868fcfa6c244a9e10d1d2c498f1f36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astralisof Aurora Gaming, Astralis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Astralis | 67c | 1,228$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f49…463abacked Aurora Gaming | 33c | 1,212$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Astralis | 71c | 654.11$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.69 | 461 | 49.9%230 W · 231 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Aurora Gaming | 29c | 545.37$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.95 | 5,028 | 55%2,763 W · 2,265 L | +112.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Astralis | 71c | 428.32$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.52 | 157 | 32.5%51 W · 106 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Astralis | 73c | 411$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.97 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd468…f6febacked Astralis | 74c | 407.4$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 460 | 42.8%197 W · 263 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…0312backed Aurora Gaming | 29c | 353.52$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.52 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…4a56backed Astralis | 73c | 268$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…1fdebacked Astralis | 72c | 266$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b0…8779backed Astralis | 72c | 259$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa937…3325backed Astralis | 73c | 256$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x841c…2481backed Aurora Gaming | 28c | 256$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…7bf6backed Astralis | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…ba41backed Aurora Gaming | 28c | 246$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b0…bad9backed Astralis | 73c | 236$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e8…4aa6backed Astralis | 73c | 221$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…07ebbacked Astralis | 72c | 216$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…efccbacked Astralis | 72c | 213$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…80e3backed Aurora Gaming | 28c | 202$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe460…422abacked Astralis | 72c | 202$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…0902backed Astralis | 72c | 201$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47d7…9907backed Aurora Gaming | 28c | 193$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…0ef4backed Astralis | 72c | 190$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f0…49bcbacked Astralis | 73c | 190$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2f…634ebacked Astralis | 73c | 183$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b01…01dcbacked Aurora Gaming | 28c | 181$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6890…308ebacked Aurora Gaming | 28c | 171$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ff…20dfbacked Aurora Gaming | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2122…ae6ebacked Aurora Gaming | 27c | 160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…f3c0backed Astralis | 73c | 157$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f5…bf7fbacked Aurora Gaming | 28c | 156$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…6954backed Aurora Gaming | 27c | 156$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf90…9c7dbacked Aurora Gaming | 27c | 154$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…7dd1backed Astralis | 72c | 151$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a41…cda7backed Aurora Gaming | 28c | 149$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32b…0dc3backed Aurora Gaming | 28c | 149$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…7604backed Aurora Gaming | 28c | 145$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c1…20c6backed Aurora Gaming | 27c | 145$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…6587backed Aurora Gaming | 27c | 142$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca73…0ae2backed Astralis | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…4222backed Aurora Gaming | 27c | 132$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…0618backed Aurora Gaming | 28c | 131$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…f478backed Aurora Gaming | 27c | 127$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f5…1481backed Aurora Gaming | 27c | 126$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8381…a304backed Astralis | 75c | 123.36$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 122 | 73.8%90 W · 32 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cca…cf66backed Aurora Gaming | 28c | 109$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa51…ef1bbacked Aurora Gaming | 27c | 106$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…0497backed Aurora Gaming | 29c | 104.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d5…9348backed Aurora Gaming | 27c | 94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Astralis | 71c | 88.66$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…149fbacked Aurora Gaming | 27c | 86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…2341backed Aurora Gaming | 27c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…f6c9backed Astralis | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora Gaming | 27c | 61.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 2,429 | 44.6%1,083 W · 1,346 L | -63.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed Astralis | 78c | 37.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Astralis | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Astralis | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 459 | 56.9%261 W · 198 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Astralis | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 446 | 54.9%245 W · 201 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…d007backed Astralis | 72c | 21.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed Astralis | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8897…149bbacked Astralis | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis - Map 1 WinnerAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.