MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe955eee1608190f62b65b385243f3cd80ec2b7cccb7666e466626561f1b1e1f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Baltimore Orioles, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x287d…38febacked Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 847.57$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.65 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins | 70c | 581.16$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.93 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 449.64$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.7 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 232.6$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 209.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 193.85$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.85 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 157$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 149.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0621…0417backed Baltimore Orioles | 18c | 137.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 19c | 121.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 102.77$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 60.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 57.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Miami Marlins | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 51.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Miami Marlins | 59c | 47.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Baltimore Orioles | 29c | 43.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Miami Marlins | 72c | 40.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 30.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Miami Marlins | 74c | 22.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 22.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Miami Marlins | 73c | 22.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 21.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 21.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 20.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.