MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d77d36b9d31eed5667be4afbdf5ca2265917c0ba061571f5b55a5938244ab39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Miami Marlins, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 1,423$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.35 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 1,356$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.88 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 465.07$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.08 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 376.66$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 280$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 199$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 45c | 180$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.74 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…7e55backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 150$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 146.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 127$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 120$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 105.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 75.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 69.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 56.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 54.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2e…d2abbacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 53.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…7aa6backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb633…871abacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 42.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 37.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 17.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…70a1backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.