Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
March Madness: Duke vs. NC State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9624e5bbc4e5345a7aacb58b1168cb9f924a48d36d6322818381927c1376029
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NC Stateof Duke, NC State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed NC State | 27c | 5,400$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,942 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed NC State | 27c | 4,011$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,907.89 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Duke | 73c | 3,000$2,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,190 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Duke | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Duke | 73c | 1,543$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.31 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Duke | 73c | 1,400$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Duke | 73c | 1,144$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.75 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07ad…4c0cbacked NC State | 27c | 800$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Duke | 73c | 500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Duke | 73c | 444$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.12 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked NC State | 27c | 300$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Duke | 73c | 166.6$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.61 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Duke | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +62%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed NC State | 31c | 48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +214.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8de9…dde4backed Duke | 74c | 43.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…a540backed Duke | 73c | 39.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…80edbacked Duke | 73c | 19.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.