Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe96d1468edb37be59f62e7c8c55cae37340ed09e631473bdcd6a526cbd5ff621
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof Inner Circle, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Inner Circle | 66c | 1,617$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.71 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Inner Circle | 60c | 1,301$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.81 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Inner Circle | 67c | 888.7$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.52 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Inner Circle | 66c | 743.17$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.13 | 791 | 59.4%470 W · 321 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked MODUS | 50c | 668.03$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.78 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c7…668abacked MODUS | 45c | 661.94$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked MODUS | 44c | 600$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Inner Circle | 44c | 567.48$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.96 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed MODUS | 56c | 557.37$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.98 | 795 | 59.4%472 W · 323 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed MODUS | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Inner Circle | 51c | 428.29$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.29 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c6…dcacbacked MODUS | 55c | 419.99$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…efdfbacked MODUS | 29c | 410.19$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.01 | 215 | 58.6%126 W · 89 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Inner Circle | 49c | 382.85$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.9 | 1,894 | 47.7%903 W · 991 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked MODUS | 39c | 365.71$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Inner Circle | 47c | 354.9$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked MODUS | 30c | 303.83$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 1,443 | 48.7%703 W · 740 L | +29.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…2d93backed MODUS | 21c | 273.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…6b51backed MODUS | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.35 | 419 | 53.7%225 W · 194 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f2…a80dbacked MODUS | 54c | 239.97$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.38 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed MODUS | 57c | 205.75$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.28 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed MODUS | 41c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 454 | 57.5%261 W · 193 L | +39.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…b760backed MODUS | 38c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Inner Circle | 50c | 191.21$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.51 | 1,247 | 44.4%554 W · 693 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…d06dbacked Inner Circle | 53c | 186.79$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.79 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…ca37backed Inner Circle | 55c | 182.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.69 | 134 | 59.7%80 W · 54 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Inner Circle | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 402 | 42.3%170 W · 232 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7900…3393backed MODUS | 37c | 146.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed MODUS | 24c | 124.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed MODUS | 55c | 117.52$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Inner Circle | 63c | 116.85$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 1,255 | 49.6%623 W · 632 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…0848backed MODUS | 48c | 113.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…0813backed MODUS | 49c | 110.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Inner Circle | 49c | 108.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked MODUS | 39c | 107$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed MODUS | 31c | 100.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1991…348ebacked Inner Circle | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed MODUS | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 258 | 55%142 W · 116 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed MODUS | 54c | 90.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c73…e6cebacked Inner Circle | 62c | 89.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked MODUS | 38c | 87.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 1,691 | 41.4%700 W · 991 L | -40.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf206…df39backed MODUS | 55c | 87.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 169 | 63.3%107 W · 62 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked MODUS | 40c | 74.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27fd…9187backed Inner Circle | 50c | 72.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbd…bcb5backed MODUS | 33c | 72.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 140 | 30.7%43 W · 97 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f31…a362backed MODUS | 57c | 70.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f46…cddbbacked MODUS | 56c | 69.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 240 | 52.1%125 W · 115 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked MODUS | 36c | 67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked MODUS | 38c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…a286backed MODUS | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…60f7backed MODUS | 33c | 57.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b98…8bcbbacked MODUS | 52c | 56.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…19f8backed MODUS | 61c | 54.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50d6…f94abacked Inner Circle | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 55 | 81.8%45 W · 10 L | +9.7wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x07f7…9a03backed Inner Circle | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Inner Circle | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 545 | 48.4%264 W · 281 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed MODUS | 42c | 34.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 210 | 44.3%93 W · 117 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed MODUS | 48c | 31.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…a423backed Inner Circle | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Inner Circle | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked MODUS | 46c | 28.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 185 | 52.4%97 W · 88 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed Inner Circle | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 604 | 60.6%366 W · 238 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsInner Circle won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 2 WinnerMODUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.