Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf045621f2d7b9b2da723654b70f4fb5d2894ea3d461ac3f7ea81cce4632b7332
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MODUSof Inner Circle, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Inner Circle | 41c | 4,762$1,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,958.07 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked MODUS | 50c | 2,780$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.44 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Inner Circle | 45c | 1,179$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.33 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7900…3393backed Inner Circle | 50c | 1,177$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.21 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Inner Circle | 50c | 1,106$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed MODUS | 55c | 1,081$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.31 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked MODUS | 61c | 866.07$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.49 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed MODUS | 58c | 678.17$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.16 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked MODUS | 52c | 517.99$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.81 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Inner Circle | 43c | 312$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.46 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MODUS | 46c | 285.85$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.36 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked MODUS | 54c | 244.62$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.53 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…53d0backed MODUS | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 209 | 49.8%104 W · 105 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…efdfbacked MODUS | 62c | 200.51$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 215 | 58.6%126 W · 89 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Inner Circle | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…ca37backed MODUS | 54c | 194.44$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 134 | 59.7%80 W · 54 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed MODUS | 60c | 163.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Inner Circle | 36c | 161.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked MODUS | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked MODUS | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed MODUS | 55c | 149.9$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked MODUS | 52c | 140.2$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked MODUS | 48c | 137.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.56 | 127 | 64.6%82 W · 45 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked MODUS | 51c | 137.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked MODUS | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…d06dbacked Inner Circle | 43c | 112.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked Inner Circle | 51c | 109.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…b760backed MODUS | 49c | 101.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MODUS | 50c | 100.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Inner Circle | 53c | 96.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Inner Circle | 30c | 79.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Inner Circle | 54c | 79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Inner Circle | 45c | 71.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 359 | 48.2%173 W · 186 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked MODUS | 46c | 65.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Inner Circle | 51c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x372f…182abacked Inner Circle | 46c | 47.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2669…fa0dbacked Inner Circle | 44c | 36.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Inner Circle | 46c | 31.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Inner Circle | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 245 | 27.3%67 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed MODUS | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked MODUS | 52c | 26.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed Inner Circle | 39c | 25.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | -18.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a51…4ef6backed MODUS | 51c | 24.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…77a2backed Inner Circle | 48c | 23.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Inner Circle | 48c | 22.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed MODUS | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsInner Circle won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 1 WinnerInner Circle won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.