Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe986be156aa8aba86beed594d309706adf700f6d3052df97f0e2f79a16aab6ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cb8…7c99backed Yes | 68c | 197.24$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 50c | 189.12$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.5 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 188.08$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 178.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 143.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 142.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 142.54$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 69c | 131.33$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 50c | 129$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 44c | 102.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…1443backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 56c | 95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 54c | 91.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 91.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 50c | 88.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 82.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 80.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 38c | 74.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 44c | 72.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 27c | 67.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 43c | 66.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 46c | 64.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 39c | 64.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…5710backed Yes | 61c | 63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 72c | 60.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…f990backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 59.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 74c | 57.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 62c | 50.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 42c | 46.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed Yes | 67c | 45.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 73c | 45.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 40c | 44.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 44.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 50c | 41.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 71c | 36.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Yes | 60c | 35.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa616…5368backed Yes | 45c | 33.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 76c | 33.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 46c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 61c | 32.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…fc29backed No | 54c | 22.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 22.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 73c | 20.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 20.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…bde5backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…9caebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fef…e307backed Yes | 72c | 16.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…2c7dbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 68cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 86°F or higher on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.