Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35e400caf020f0eccded1d6ac9c424a53e177e17a6d1ad4d7a780860e7153586
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 74c | 644.26$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.73 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 424.74$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 413.65$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.73 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 57c | 263.16$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 252.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 43c | 245.4$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.71 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 27c | 231.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 229$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 210.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf695…0045backed Yes | 17c | 206.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…7c99backed No | 80c | 195.04$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed No | 69c | 187.95$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 43c | 186.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.52 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 28c | 147.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 121$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 117.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 21c | 111.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 31c | 109.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 80c | 106.08$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 13c | 91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 62c | 82.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed Yes | 25c | 80.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fef…e307backed Yes | 28c | 75.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 73.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 64.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 61.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ba…b46dbacked Yes | 24c | 51.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 30c | 49.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 46.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 56c | 43.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 30c | 38.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…5710backed Yes | 34c | 33.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 33.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 31.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x816d…47d0backed No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 71c | 30.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b8…3b4fbacked No | 58c | 28.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 17.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 16.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 71c | 15.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 70c | 14.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 76c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 86°F or higher on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.