Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9c144a61d0867f0e693bed9d506f42a973d7d2a2045abff6f24d5eace001117
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a3…0822backed Yes | 6c | 464.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 35c | 387.53$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.93 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 57c | 316.45$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.45 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 231.44$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 40c | 223.21$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 221.49$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 48c | 207.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 66c | 196.49$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.88 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…2541backed Yes | 63c | 165.9$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 22c | 151.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 66c | 143.34$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 76c | 132.6$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 129.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 123.75$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…d5f8backed Yes | 50c | 98.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 24c | 96.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 50c | 90.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 88.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 57c | 87.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 29c | 85.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 79.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…deacbacked Yes | 24c | 79.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…c567backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 75.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 28c | 71.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 19c | 71.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 28c | 69.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 68.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 29c | 67.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0936…9a1abacked Yes | 17c | 63.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed No | 35c | 60.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 67c | 59.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 57.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 30c | 51.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 68c | 49.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 41c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 52c | 44.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes | 45c | 44.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 24c | 43.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 70c | 43.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 66c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 39.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 60c | 36.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 41c | 36.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 75c | 33.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 61c | 32.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 53c | 29.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 51c | 28.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 71c | 28.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 71c | 28.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 54c | 27.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 69c | 27.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 60c | 25.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 53c | 24.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 55c | 22.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 59c | 22.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed No | 72c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 75c | 20.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 80c | 19.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 76c | 18.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 75c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.