Premier League · resolved market
Burnley FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9c3b92170b7ebd04f25974bed6d83afb4118d2b438674cd7339eeb7ed08aca2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 3,466$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.1 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 3,249$1,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.56 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…b628backed Under | 76c | 2,848$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.27 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1d…820cbacked Under | 76c | 2,302$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.48 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…1482backed Over | 54c | 2,300$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 12c | 1,248$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.82 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b7…dbdabacked Under | 77c | 913.56$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 64c | 710$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.6 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 15c | 559.68$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.31 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 61c | 522.58$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 171 | 61.4%105 W · 66 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5204…1ca0backed Over | 62c | 480.95$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5901…63a2backed Under | 48c | 438.88$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cb…7b9bbacked Under | 63c | 428.38$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.14 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -5.4wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -37%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff8…aa3abacked Over | 15c | 402$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Under | 75c | 373.33$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 68c | 357.61$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.83 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 350.39$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.16 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Under | 50c | 323.49$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.18 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 63c | 299.99$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.93 | 152 | 63.2%96 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ea…2f87backed Under | 44c | 298.39$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x498e…f5c5backed Over | 51c | 297.74$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 17c | 291.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 37c | 271.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…e759backed Under | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 62c | 258.3$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 13c | 240$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4499…d102backed Under | 48c | 239.59$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c3…dedebacked Over | 58c | 212.16$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Over | 29c | 209.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 265 | 48.3%128 W · 137 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fa…585cbacked Under | 56c | 179.78$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 61c | 174.57$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 33c | 160.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 198 | 53%105 W · 93 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22b9…6ae2backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Over | 55c | 156.86$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 29c | 109.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 35c | 108.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…a1cdbacked Over | 39c | 107.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 13c | 103$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…8f18backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 80c | 89.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x276f…bfb5backed Over | 50c | 79.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 76c | 76.96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 23c | 64.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 209 | 31.6%66 W · 143 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 21c | 63.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 117 | 12%14 W · 103 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…027cbacked Under | 43c | 62.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 57c | 61.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…aa9abacked Over | 40c | 60.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 47c | 57.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 46c | 54.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…132abacked Over | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -12.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 157 | 40.8%64 W · 93 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a51…14bfbacked Under | 72c | 47.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40e…2967backed Over | 54c | 40.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…9479backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 54c | 36.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a50…6c6bbacked Over | 50c | 25.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…697abacked Over | 61c | 25.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…b32cbacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Burnley FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Burnley FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Burnley FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Burnley FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Burnley FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.