Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9ce15c2abfd5485d58870ee3f91aba12f8201179626ca2e8f9248e788115e09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05d8…31cfbacked No | 71c | 3,540$2,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.82 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Yes | 30c | 3,193$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.99 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 78c | 2,960$2,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.29 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 16c | 2,483$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.86 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 66c | 1,611$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.04 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 79c | 1,518$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.33 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,354$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.83 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc68a…07f0backed No | 78c | 1,245$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 33c | 1,129$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.63 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe01c…7f6cbacked No | 77c | 1,076$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…656dbacked Yes | 22c | 850$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 23c | 829.39$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.76 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 803.33$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.17 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 11c | 785.34$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 21c | 775.33$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.69 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Yes | 20c | 629.06$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.81 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 23c | 589.5$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.58 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de3…2fc5backed No | 80c | 535.5$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 15c | 483.26$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 21c | 453.62$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…53bcbacked Yes | 8c | 399.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…6df9backed Yes | 24c | 397.66$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 20c | 381.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 29c | 331.3$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 22c | 329.05$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 7c | 295.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Yes | 30c | 279.31$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 18c | 277.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7f…12d5backed No | 77c | 243.72$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked No | 70c | 243.71$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b5…f7ebbacked Yes | 31c | 233.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 19c | 230.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Yes | 22c | 219.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 22c | 219.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 24c | 213$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 23c | 207.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d15…e663backed Yes | 21c | 200.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 78c | 192$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 22c | 177.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked No | 63c | 175.12$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…8f57backed No | 78c | 155.61$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 22c | 132.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked No | 80c | 124.05$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed No | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Yes | 25c | 114.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 74c | 107$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 80c | 106.24$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…4413backed Yes | 16c | 100.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 98.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 36c | 95.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…0c64backed No | 76c | 90.77$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…d788backed Yes | 23c | 89.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…431dbacked Yes | 21c | 88.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c10…2e23backed Yes | 23c | 82.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x101e…a6cdbacked Yes | 23c | 82.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 21c | 81.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed Yes | 23c | 78.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 80c | 70.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 80c | 60.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4f…63f3backed Yes | 32c | 59.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ba81backed Yes | 23c | 58.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb2…2c8cbacked Yes | 23c | 51.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 20c | 50.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 33c | 49.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 79c | 42.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 79c | 41.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 76c | 39.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 76c | 34.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed No | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed No | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 79c | 25.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 79c | 18.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…fbb3backed No | 79c | 14.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…5818backed No | 78c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 75cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?No won
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.