Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e0dad6a7c8700c82cef4bd87e7b140847d02701d1ed013d15c641bcaab432c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 20c | 4,609$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.72 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 1,802$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.13 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…02d2backed No | 76c | 822.5$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.4 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 77c | 731.22$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.18 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba97…716bbacked Yes | 22c | 658.41$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.6 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 78c | 643.7$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.65 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…9caebacked Yes | 19c | 500.74$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc587…1630backed No | 78c | 500.67$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.15 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 19c | 499.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 16c | 419.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 14c | 367.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 18c | 338.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d25…5529backed Yes | 30c | 287.84$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 22c | 257.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 14c | 220.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 78c | 210.38$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes | 23c | 207.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 70c | 205$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 9c | 204.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed No | 77c | 162.39$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 80c | 151.53$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x987d…1153backed Yes | 23c | 132.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806a…62d7backed Yes | 23c | 116.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2016…3998backed Yes | 23c | 107.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Yes | 23c | 99.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe592…691abacked No | 72c | 85.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…9241backed No | 77c | 84.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 23c | 82.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 70.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked No | 76c | 66.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 22c | 64.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf269…fa23backed Yes | 23c | 62.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 25c | 53.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 50.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…0dbdbacked Yes | 25c | 49.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Yes | 28c | 47.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5820…b6f6backed Yes | 23c | 45.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed No | 78c | 34.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf11a…d3e3backed No | 77c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 78c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 79c | 18.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 71c | 14.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?this page
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-04-25?No won
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.