NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9d19900a7ca634be4d6654ace274fff90b9f52daaea6ec2ce8c109c8d79142e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Knicks, Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 57c | 8,922$5,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,106.27 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Knicks | 42c | 8,242$3,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,771.83 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Knicks | 46c | 3,122$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,686 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Knicks | 45c | 2,833$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.18 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Knicks | 45c | 2,488$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.39 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 58c | 2,041$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.78 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 1,890$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.32 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cavaliers | 55c | 557$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.35 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cavaliers | 56c | 496$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.76 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 345.03$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.8 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…f80abacked Knicks | 46c | 191.8$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 186$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf931…f340backed Knicks | 45c | 112.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 52cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cavaliers | 57c | 104$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 97.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 385 | 45.7%176 W · 209 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Knicks | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…de71backed Cavaliers | 56c | 35.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)this page
- Cavaliers vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.