NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48507108d80211ce9954c9af9fd7a48c9d85ec627de3e24e84d0013c9ad66571
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Knicks, Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $323,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $334,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $323,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Knicks | 40c | 48,011$19,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,794.56 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Cavaliers | 56c | 39,106$21,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,780.24 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Cavaliers | 61c | 24,940$15,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,133.3 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Knicks | 44c | 11,154$4,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,200.94 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Cavaliers | 55c | 9,795$5,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,415.09 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Knicks | 39c | 7,500$2,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,564.87 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Cavaliers | 63c | 6,815$4,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,293.36 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Cavaliers | 60c | 6,592$3,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,943.4 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Cavaliers | 62c | 6,509$4,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,035.58 | 148 | 56.1%83 W · 65 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 5,474$3,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,087.6 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Cavaliers | 56c | 5,357$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 156 | 56.4%88 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 59c | 5,190$3,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,056.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Knicks | 40c | 3,002$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,801 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cavaliers | 58c | 2,197$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.95 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 55c | 1,995$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.57 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Cavaliers | 47c | 1,503$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.03 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 1,038$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Knicks | 42c | 891$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.61 | 279 | 17.9%50 W · 229 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Knicks | 48c | 841.22$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.43 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Knicks | 42c | 778.15$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.88 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Cavaliers | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5552…576abacked Knicks | 44c | 451.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 324$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.44 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…ba94backed Cavaliers | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc05a…9bf0backed Knicks | 70c | 180.42$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…adb0backed Knicks | 42c | 102.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…d96ebacked Knicks | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…11abbacked Knicks | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b5…8b54backed Knicks | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…21b7backed Cavaliers | 59c | 98.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a8…f648backed Cavaliers | 59c | 98.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0c…6280backed Cavaliers | 59c | 98.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Cavaliers | 60c | 91.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f23…b19ebacked Cavaliers | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…2041backed Knicks | 42c | 76.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Knicks | 39c | 62.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 121 | 43%52 W · 69 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…08dcbacked Knicks | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cavaliers | 58c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Knicks | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Cavaliers | 59c | 47.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 264 | 39.4%104 W · 160 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…2372backed Knicks | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed Cavaliers | 58c | 43.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Cavaliers | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Knicks | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)this page
- Cavaliers vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.