Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9d634d46a75f43a308c8bd05be797688fb0ea406ddbc749abd466afa2fbd954
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,214$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.87 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 999.78$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 23c | 390.08$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.28 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 70c | 341.06$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.61 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 27c | 271.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.59 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 49c | 264.26$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.62 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 17c | 247.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.68 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 234.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 223.63$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.86 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 157.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 63c | 155.21$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 80c | 146.35$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.46 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 33c | 136.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 14c | 132.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 124.37$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 121.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 60c | 115$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 109.29$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 107$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 59c | 102.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 32c | 96.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 82.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 75c | 71.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9c…b879backed Yes | 53c | 68.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 27c | 66.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 78c | 61.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 19c | 60.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 60.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 36c | 56.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 50c | 52.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 21c | 52.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 22c | 48.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 47.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 71c | 40.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7107backed Yes | 56c | 35.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…e522backed Yes | 79c | 32.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked No | 78c | 31.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 35c | 31.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 38c | 28.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 47c | 21.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 49c | 21.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 54c | 20.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…5548backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 60c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 71c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 57c | 18.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 72c | 15.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb25…68cbbacked No | 70c | 15.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed No | 78c | 15.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.