Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cbd2ff409db2fc42ff7577f73034ccf27350290a62f9f4259919dc9486420db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 43c | 604.74$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 57c | 531$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.49 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 56c | 499.99$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.69 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 44c | 478.89$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.03 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes | 57c | 353.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 47c | 270.81$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.12 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 41c | 240.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.18 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb7…4eaebacked No | 43c | 204.52$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 42c | 203.46$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.88 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 42c | 186.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 60c | 166.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 44c | 153.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.79 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 51c | 151.38$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.77 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 45c | 146.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 59c | 121.51$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 54c | 121.51$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 120.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 109.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 41c | 107.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 106.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 10c | 102.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 101$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 90.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 60c | 88.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 79.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 45c | 77.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 61c | 76.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 43c | 73.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 54c | 69.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 60.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 46c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 55c | 54.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x74e5…3011backed Yes | 62c | 54.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 43c | 54.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9c…b879backed Yes | 65c | 53.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 37c | 43.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 58c | 43.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 55c | 43.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 60c | 39.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 61c | 38.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…aa2dbacked Yes | 56c | 37.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 57c | 36.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 46c | 34.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 31c | 34.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 56c | 31.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 31.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x83b8…2e5dbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 62c | 28.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 28.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 44c | 27.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 54c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 56c | 25.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 54c | 25.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 62c | 23.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 60c | 23.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…7c05backed No | 47c | 23.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…2be0backed Yes | 55c | 20.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…b2a6backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 52c | 19.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.