Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9fd30022f4a66a2e3df68f2016e7828cebba604147f7c907d3c01a3645d9460
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,285$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 1c | 7,975$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,350$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…b385backed Yes | 8c | 1,285$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 77c | 1,085$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.18 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 835.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…a7fdbacked Yes | 10c | 800$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 13c | 793.18$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.28 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked No | 80c | 719.74$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.78 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 23c | 700.23$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.38 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 456.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 29c | 442.81$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.6 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 16c | 418.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed Yes | 10c | 410.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 9c | 400.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 7c | 399.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed Yes | 34c | 360$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 11c | 354.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 12c | 327.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 315.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 17c | 236.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 11c | 222$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 11c | 191.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…a94cbacked Yes | 9c | 178.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…80a2backed Yes | 11c | 175$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 161.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 155.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 12c | 154.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 13c | 149.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 129.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed Yes | 12c | 128.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 14c | 123$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 14c | 120.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 119.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 63c | 110.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…4bc0backed Yes | 11c | 105.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…6deabacked Yes | 26c | 103.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 100.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…adbdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 34c | 99.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked Yes | 12c | 86.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 67c | 74.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 78c | 74.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 35c | 67.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes | 24c | 58.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 23c | 55.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 22c | 49.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 30c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 41.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 76c | 39.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 77c | 38.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ca…67d7backed Yes | 31c | 35.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 74c | 25.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddb…81eabacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.