Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45e8494a05c4e654cc2a0f89b084be22ed37cd92454fe63cfcee11a251cb3888
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 0c | 8,056$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…243dbacked No | 0c | 6,221$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 0c | 4,258$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 1c | 3,011$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 14c | 1,124$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 55c | 1,028$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.47 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 78c | 873.46$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.26 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 21c | 542.39$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.68 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4320…4a44backed No | 11c | 517.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 78c | 502.28$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 67c | 494.58$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.32 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked No | 6c | 429.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked No | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 63c | 348.86$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.75 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 54c | 312.5$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.94 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed No | 46c | 270$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 29c | 269.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 41c | 259.29$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.82 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 248.35$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.81 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 73c | 246.79$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 36c | 230.71$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 32c | 222.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 33c | 220.1$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.86 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 25c | 218$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 180.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 180.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked Yes | 78c | 176.61$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 24c | 163$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228e…08efbacked Yes | 78c | 148.33$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 29c | 147.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.25 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…7d78backed Yes | 35c | 144.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 60c | 140.18$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 51c | 126.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 27c | 126$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 10c | 124.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 19c | 123.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 28c | 121.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 32c | 120.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 119.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 48c | 116.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 30c | 112.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…b385backed Yes | 35c | 112.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.44 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 38c | 92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes | 43c | 91.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…d481backed No | 17c | 88.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 83.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed No | 21c | 78.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 42c | 77.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…65e9backed No | 20c | 75.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 45c | 66.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9df…d8bcbacked No | 61c | 65.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 42c | 62.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1364backed Yes | 24c | 61.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa626…6778backed No | 47c | 60.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 51c | 58.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 65c | 54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 68c | 53.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed Yes | 49c | 52.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x660b…e5acbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 57c | 50.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 48.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe9…71cdbacked Yes | 32c | 47.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 61c | 47.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 68c | 46.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 45.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes | 61c | 44.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748d…26e2backed Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 53c | 41.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 59c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 70c | 39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…924cbacked Yes | 36c | 33.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2327backed No | 58c | 31.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…8541backed Yes | 35c | 29.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b2…1decbacked No | 62c | 29.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…fa27backed Yes | 69c | 28.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…0ba5backed Yes | 39c | 26.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 69c | 25.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 61c | 24.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.