Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f4961114efc6b80454695366a8b94c5849d9fc33e5e0c7975794b21bb7a4e6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a19…b2a9backed Yes | 0c | 29,054$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…ae82backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 5,935$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 5c | 999.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 11c | 556.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 9c | 429.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…a7fdbacked Yes | 10c | 399.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 6c | 279.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 255.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 247.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 5c | 223.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 39c | 191.47$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 9c | 183.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 174.21$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 29c | 172.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 37c | 166.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 41c | 163$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 158.76$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…b385backed Yes | 41c | 149.8$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 139.64$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 10c | 136.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aba…ba26backed Yes | 37c | 133.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 121.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 38c | 116.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 32c | 112.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 71c | 112.14$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…7d78backed Yes | 42c | 109.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes | 44c | 107.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 21c | 104.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 93.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 92.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 79.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…6718backed Yes | 40c | 74.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e4…1dbabacked No | 62c | 71.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 65c | 67.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 34c | 66.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 67c | 58.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…8484backed Yes | 38c | 52.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 58c | 49.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 60c | 49.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b0…ec7dbacked Yes | 40c | 49.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 59c | 48.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 40c | 48.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…50c1backed Yes | 43c | 46.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 28c | 46.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x660b…e5acbacked Yes | 44c | 45.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 42c | 43.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dfc0backed Yes | 36c | 43.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 40c | 40.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…9211backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 61c | 40.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 39.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 61c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 67c | 37.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 75c | 30.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed No | 72c | 17.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.